When the Cold War ended in 1991, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization inevitably faced serious concerns over its continued existence. NATO had been a multilateral alliance ensuring peace and stability against potential invasion by the Soviet-led socialist bloc. But with the collapse of the Soviet Union and other socialist forces, the justification for NATO’s existence disappeared. After much deliberation and debate, NATO has sought to redefine its role by emphasizing its function as a supporter of the US-led liberal international order on a global scale. However, NATO now finds itself seriously weakened by the "ally-bashing" policy of US President Donald Trump. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while NATO member states agree on the need to strengthen military capabilities, they find themselves bewildered and betrayed by the excessively aggressive demands of the United States.
While NATO member states are suffering from dizziness, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, led by China and Russia, is displaying a contrasting vitality. Judging by the recent diplomatic movements of the two leading nations, it is clear that the SCO is gaining new momentum. It cannot be ruled out that the SCO may become a meaningful multilateral alliance capable of rivaling NATO.
Among those engaged in SCO-related diplomacy, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has shown the most dynamic activity. On July 9 and 10, he attended the ASEAN Regional Forum in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and articulated Russia’s position. In normal times, his participation would not be particularly noteworthy. But now it holds significance. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country has borne the stigma of a war criminal state and shown signs of diplomatic isolation for more than three years. This time, by attending the ASEAN forum, Russia signaled a more active diplomatic posture.
Following his Kuala Lumpur visit, Lavrov flew to Wonsan, North Korea. He was warmly received by Chairman Kim Jong Un, and they discussed enhancing strategic cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Lavrov demonstrated solidarity with North Korea by actively participating in tourism promotion events celebrating the opening of the Wonsan-Kalma tourist zone, one of Chairman Kim’s flagship projects. Lavrov’s efforts to manage the relationship with North Korea will likely help Russia escape its diplomatic isolation.
Lavrov’s next destination after Wonsan was Tianjin, China, to attend the SCO foreign ministers’ meeting. He held a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and paid a courtesy visit to President Xi Jinping. During the talks, Lavrov coordinated the schedule for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing. Putin is scheduled to attend the SCO summit in Tianjin at the end of August and then participate in China’s Victory Day military parade in early September. This summit, following Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow in May, marks the second summit between the Chinese and Russian leaders in four months. Lavrov also met with India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar in China and reaffirmed a commitment to deepening the strategic partnership between the two countries. Notably, he proposed reviving the RIC (Russia-India-China) trilateral cooperation framework. This initiative, aimed at building a multipolar order to replace the US-centered unipolar world, is significant as it seeks to structurally reshape the international system.
China has also been exhibiting dynamic diplomacy this year. In April, President Xi Jinping toured three countries — Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. In May, he paid a state visit to Russia. In June, he visited Kazakhstan to attend the China-Central Asia Summit. While Xi's foreign travels are not unprecedented, in light of rumors suggesting his political downfall, his recent trips symbolize a proactive diplomatic posture. Xi notably met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar during the SCO foreign ministers’ meeting. Despite ongoing tensions over border issues, China’s success in improving relations with India could position it as a mediator in the India-Pakistan conflict, thereby expanding its diplomatic influence. This indicates that China is trying to turn the tide diplomatically through the SCO summit.
The frantic diplomatic moves by China and Russia are significantly influenced by the bizarre foreign policy of the United States. Since taking office in January, President Trump has imposed absurdly high tariffs on other countries and demanded concessions in return for reducing them. Most notably, he has pressured US allies — key pillars of American hegemony — to increase defense spending and cost-sharing, often behaving like an unpredictable hegemon. Many countries around the world remain anxious and uncertain, unable to find proper responses to the intimidation by the world’s sole superpower. The problem is that, while the United States is undermining its own leadership, the next most powerful nation — China — is widely perceived as a bully due to its lack of empathy and rigid leadership style. As a result, it has not been seen as a viable alternative.
In particular, China experienced a dark chapter in October 2022, ahead of Xi Jinping’s third-term inauguration. During that period, multiple senior Chinese diplomats issued a flurry of threatening messages to certain countries, claiming to showcase the greatness of China. This heavy-handed approach backfired and led to a substantial loss of soft power. However, China now seems to be working to reverse that image, portraying itself as a possible alternative to the US amid American leadership fatigue. If China successfully hosts this year’s SCO summit, its image and international standing are likely to improve. While the SCO has 10 full members, it also includes two observer states and 14 dialogue partners, indicating considerable potential as a multilateral cooperation body.
If President Trump continues his current foreign policy line, we will soon witness the SCO expanding and gaining weight. Conversely, should the US revise its current course, China and Russia’s recent diplomatic momentum may subside, and NATO could find space to recover. Whether the SCO emerges as a genuine counterweight to NATO depends less on China and Russia, and more on the choices made in Washington.
Wang Son-taek
Wang Son-taek is an adjunct professor at Sogang University. He is a former diplomatic correspondent at YTN and a former research associate at Yeosijae. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. — Ed.
khnews@heraldcorp.com
