To date, an election for the House of Councilors, the upper house of the Japanese Diet, would not have been big news, but results from the recent election on July 20 changed that. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the Komeito party, lost their majority while recently formed populist far-right parties performed surprisingly well. In particular, the Sanseito party led by right-wing provocateur Sohei Kamiya won 14 seats, pushing up its total in the chamber from one seat to 15.
The upper house is the weaker of the two houses of the Diet, but the results offer insight into the direction of Japanese politics. They were also a sharp rebuke to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after less than a year in office.
What happened in Japan and where is the nation headed? Since the right-wing populist wave that began in 2016, first with the Brexit vote in the UK and then with the election of Donald Trump as president in the US, populism has swept across Europe and attracted support in other important democracies, such as Brazil and, to a lesser extent, South Korea. Only Japan, long noted for its stable, consensus-driven politics, seemed immune. Not anymore.
The reasons for the right-wing turn mirror those in other places: economic insecurity, fear of immigrants and the rise of alternative media. These trends feed on each other, giving life to politicians who rage against immigrants, LGBTQ+ people, the mainstream media, big tech, green policies and whatever else “globalists” support. In the process, fringe conspiracy theories grow and become mainstream.
The right-wing populist script is similar but takes on a different cast as it spreads from one country to another. In Japan’s case, the Sanseito emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic with YouTube videos promoting conspiracy theories and vaccine skepticism. Kamiya threw anti-immigrant and anti-LGBTQ+ sentiment into the mix and campaigned on the slogan “Japanese First.” He has stated that he drew inspiration from Donald Trump’s MAGA movement in the US.
Support for the Sanseito in Japan came primarily from younger voters who feel that the “Japanese dream” of a stable job, a house and a secure retirement is slipping away from them. After years of stable prices, inflation has hit 3 percent, and home prices are rising while wages remain stagnant. The influx of foreign workers exacerbates feelings of insecurity. Younger generations elsewhere share these feelings but have different outlets for expressing them.
In the US, Trump consistently underperformed with younger voters in 2016, 2020 and 2024. His strongest support has come from voters 45 and older. Younger voters in the US lean left and have fueled progressive insurgencies in the Democratic Party. In South Korea, meanwhile, younger voters have split by gender, with more men supporting the conservative People Power Party and women supporting the Democratic Party of Korea in ever larger numbers. In the German election earlier this year, the youth vote split into two extremes. The left-wing Die Linke won the most youth support, whereas the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland came a close second and mainstream parties did poorly.
In Japan, older voters continue to support the LDP and the slightly center-left Constitutional Democratic Party, the main opposition party. While the LDP saw a sharp drop in percentage of votes, the CDP remained stagnant. The Japanese Communist Party, meanwhile, which attracted younger voters in the late 20th century, has failed to do so in recent years, and its core support base continues to age.
To young voters in Japan, as elsewhere, the established mainstream parties represent the status quo that they want to change. In theory, the two left-leaning parties, the JCP and the smaller left-wing Reiwa Shinsengumi party should appeal to younger voters because they support drastic change. The problem is that younger voters view them as old and tired as well, with little chance of getting close to power.
This leaves the far-right as the most attractive vehicle for young people seeking easy answers to their worries. The Sanseito and the other far-right party, the Conservative Party of Japan, together won 17 percent of votes in electoral districts, and 21 percent of the national proportional vote. Those numbers put them behind only the LDP in terms of votes earned, which suggests that they have staying power.
Japan has clearly entered a period of political instability. The big question is what the center will do. Will it embrace a new direction that renews the “Japanese Dream”? Or will it hunker down on the past and let the far-right grow?
Robert J. Fouser
Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Providence, Rhode Island. He can be reached at robertjfouser@gmail.com. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. -- Ed.
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